Image credit: Jordan Merrick

Goldman Sachs have updated their predictions for the music industry in 2024, with a new report suggesting huge growth for the year.

Goldman Sachs have just released an update on the music industry, predicting sales for 2024 and beyond. In their ‘Music in the Air‘ report, global investment bank Goldman Sachs lay out how 2024 looks for music creators, distributors, and fans. Spoiler; it looks good.

Goldman Sachs music industry

Goldman Sachs is now forecasting a 7.6% growth in music sales for 2024, encompassing recorded music, publishing rights, and the booming live concert scene. This optimistic outlook is a slight bump from their previous prediction of 7.4%. Additionally, the report anticipates a 7.9% spike in overall gross revenue for the music industry this year.

Fuelled by the return of live concerts and the insatiable demand of music fans, the live performance sector is expected to be a major driver of growth. Goldman Sachs cites Live Nation’s projection of “another record year” for concerts in 2024, highlighting the pent-up energy for live music experiences as well as the boost that streaming services are providing to concert discovery.

Music publishing is also poised for a strong showing, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 9.2% revenue increase between 2024 and 2025. This echoes the recent double-digit growth reported by Warner Music in Q1 2024, signifying a continued upswing in the value of music copyrights.

While streaming remains a dominant force, Goldman Sachs acknowledges a slower-than-expected growth rate in recorded music sales (8.9% instead of 9.3%). Notably, ad-supported streaming is experiencing the sharpest slowdown in revenue growth, with a projected 9.1% increase compared to the previously anticipated 18%.

However, this dip is balanced by the robust growth in other areas. Paid subscriptions and streaming in emerging markets, where ad revenue is generally lower, are key contributors to this positive outlook.

Goldman Sachs also revises its forecast for physical music sales, predicting a 3.1% growth instead of a decline. This upward adjustment reflects the dedicated purchasing habits of superfans, who are fuelling a resurgence in physical music purchases for their favourite artists. Funnily enough, after the resurgence in vinyl records we are now seeing CDs coming back in a big way – as a cheaper solution to physical music ownership.

The positive outlook extends beyond 2024. Goldman Sachs now predicts a steady rise in global music industry revenue, culminating in a staggering $163.7 billion by 2030. If this prediction holds true, the music industry could nearly double in size withing the next six years, signifying a vibrant future for music creation and consumption.