Recorded music market forecast to reach $121.1 billion by 2033
MIDiA Research forecasts the global recorded-music market will reach $121.1 billion by 2033, with emerging markets, streaming and the wider fan economy driving the next wave of growth.
The global recorded-music market could be worth $121.1 billion by 2033, according to a new forecast from MIDiA Research.
That would represent almost $47 billion in additional retail revenue compared with 2025, when the market was worth $74.3 billion.
But the forecast isn’t simply about more people paying for streaming. MIDiA expects the next phase of music industry growth to come from a broader mix of markets, platforms and ways for fans to spend money on music. For independent artists and labels, that could create more opportunities to find listeners and build audiences around the world.
MIDiA forecasts a $121.1 billion recorded-music market
MIDiA Research’s latest 2026-2033 global music forecasts predict that global recorded-music retail revenue will grow from $74.3 billion in 2025 to $121.1 billion in 2033.
That is an increase of almost $47 billion over eight years. MIDiA says growth will not be evenly distributed, however, with some markets and revenue streams expanding much faster than others.
It’s also important to clarify what this $121.1 billion figure actually measures. Music Ally notes that MIDiA’s figure is based on retail revenues, rather than the trade revenues reported in the IFPI’s annual recorded-music figures.
MIDiA also forecasts global recorded-music trade revenue to reach $62.7 billion by 2033, although it expects retail revenue to grow faster as streaming services take a larger share of the overall revenue generated by music.
The wider picture is consistent with other long-term forecasts. Goldman Sachs Research expects the global music industry as a whole to approach $200 billion in revenue by 2035, up from $105 billion in 2024, although its methodology and market definition differ from MIDiA’s.
Where will the next $47 billion come from?
MIDiA’s forecast isn’t suggesting that the existing music markets will simply get bigger. A significant part of the growth is expected to come from new listeners and developing music markets.
The research predicts that the Global South will continue gaining subscribers, increasing its share of the global market by 8.5 percentage points by 2033.
MIDiA expects India to become the third-largest country in the world for music subscribers by 2033, behind China and the US.
That doesn’t mean India will generate the third-highest subscription revenue. MIDiA forecasts the US, China, UK, Germany and Japan will remain the five biggest markets for subscription revenue, with the same five countries occupying those positions as in 2025.
MIDiA also expects the wider fan economy to grow from $11.3 billion in 2025 to $18.5 billion by 2033. This includes revenue from physical music, merchandise, live events, brand partnerships and non-DSP streaming across areas such as social, fitness and gaming.
What does the forecast mean for independent artists?
The biggest takeaway isn’t that artists should start planning for 2033. It’s that the opportunities available to independent artists today could become even more global over the next decade.
Global growth also means artists need to think beyond their home market.
You don’t necessarily need to move to a new country or radically change your sound to benefit from this. Instead, artists can make sure their music is easy to discover wherever new listeners are emerging.
Digital distribution has already removed many of the geographical barriers that once stood between artists and international audiences. An independent artist can release music from their bedroom and make it available to listeners in the US, India, Brazil, Japan, the UK and countless other markets without needing a traditional record deal.
As the global listener base expands, being available in more markets becomes increasingly valuable. RouteNote helps artists and labels distribute music to major streaming services worldwide, allowing independent artists and labels to reach listeners around the world.
The next era of music will be bigger than streaming
MIDiA’s $121.1 billion forecast is ultimately a sign of an industry that is still evolving.
Streaming has transformed recorded music over the past decade, but the next stage of growth looks increasingly global and increasingly connected to the wider fan experience.
More subscribers will come from emerging markets. Streaming will continue to generate revenue. Social, gaming and fitness platforms will play a bigger role in how people interact with music. And artists will have more ways to turn listeners into dedicated fans.
For independent musicians and labels, that creates a simple opportunity: build an audience that can travel with you across platforms and borders.
Getting your music onto the world’s major platforms is the first step. Understanding where your listeners are, continuing to release consistently and finding ways to turn casual listeners into genuine fans can help you make the most of the expanding global music market.
And if MIDiA’s forecast is right, there could be a lot more listeners out there waiting to discover your music.