Image credit: Wesley Tingey

Why, after a hit single-packed 2024, are chart analysts saying that 2025 has produced the least new hit songs in U.S. history?

This time last year, popular music lovers were spoilt for choice. We were living in a Brat summer, with Charli XCX’s album reaching such a cultural zenith as to get picked up by political campaigning including Kamala Harris’ presidential bid.

But beyond Brat, the Summer was filled with recognisable hits: Beyoncé’s venture into country music was tearing up charts with single TEXAS HOLD ‘EM pulling a lot of weight; Sabrina Carpenter’s Espresso was everywhere; MILLION DOLLAR BABY by Tommy Richman was all over TikTok.

Not to mention massive hits from Chappell Roan, Benson Boone, and Billie Eilish. These weren’t just huge singles that made a lasting impact in the chart, they were iconic to the year. Chances are, you’d recognise these songs if you heard them again now.

Where are the hit singles in 2025?

So, let’s jump to where we are now: What are the big hits in summer 2025? Well, if you were to look at the charts, it would seem there’s only one lasting song. That’s Ordinary by Alex Warren, an indistinct mega hit that you’d be forgiven for confusing with any of the similar sounding early 2010’s singer-songwriter songs.

Chartmetric released shocking data showing that the first half of 2025 has featured less than half of the unique tracks in Spotify’s Top 50 Global Chart than the year before. Whilst the first half of 2024 saw 49 unique tracks released, 2025 only resulted in 23.

There have been big new releases, such as Sabrina Carpenter’s Manchild and new albums from Lady Gaga and Justin Bieber. However, even with large listening success they simply haven’t found the cultural footing that we were seeing last year.

The songs have either found fleeting success in the charts or remained unmemorable with the public at large, beyond fans.

Is this hit drought unique to 2025?

2024 was clearly a cultural highpoint for music with the range of major singles and huge albums like Brat, HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, and Short n’Sweet to name a few. So, was it just a special year last year?

It doesn’t seem so as 2023 had the major cultural conversation around Oppenheimer and Barbie, the latter producing hit singles for the summer. Then there were massive singles like Kill Bill by SZA, Flowers by Miley Cyrus, Cruel Summer by Taylor Swift, Boy’s a liar Pt. 2 by PinkPantheress with Ice Spice – need I go on?

As a matter of fact, chart analysts have found that 2025 has so-far produced the fewest hit songs of any year in the U.S. before. So, what is going on?

Why are there no hit singles in 2025?

There is something undefinable about both hits and cultural movements. Much as major labels may try, they cannot predict exactly what will hit the right mark to gain success or capture the zeitgeist.

So, it is perhaps in part down to random chance that nothing has ticked the right box for lasting impact this year. There is also the fact that the volum of new music released in the last 18 months is being listened to 3% less than last year, though that statistic seems to play into the general loop of things.

But, there is likely something larger at play. During the Covid pandemic there was a notable drop of new music in the charts. 2025 has so far been a year centred on global issues like the genocide in Gaza, continuing global conflicts like the invasion of Ukraine, and global political turmoil from issues like President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and environmental policy.

The major musical stories of the year seem not to have been those of major successes, but of protest and pushback. Glastonbury festival’s headline stories were those of Kneecap and Bob Vylan – among others – protesting Izrael’s actions in Gaza.

Jaime Marconette, the vice president of music insights and industry relations at Luminate, says: “In the Covid period, there was a lot of dramatic things happening in our world. So, it is interesting that now in a period where there’s uncertainty out there, we’re seeing it again.

“Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but we’re also starting to notice a jump in people streaming recession pop [music released around 2008] and it does point to a sort of this communal yearning for things that bring comfort from the past.”

What comes next for hit music?

We are only halfway through the year, and whilst summer is often the time for big hits there is also often an end of summer wave around August and September. There are also big releases planned from artists like Sabrina Carpenter and Drake that may come with some year defining singles.

Of course, the global events impacting listener’s moods and the music they are seeking are unlikely to change that soon. What’s more, if the year does represent a general change in listener habits – as hitmaking machines like broadcast radio dwindles in popularity – perhaps 2025 won’t be an anomaly.

However, much like after the Covid period there was a big boost in new music it is likely that the world simply needs time to heal or comfort themselves. As always, the next big movement can’t be predicted but this writer feels that it will come just when we need it to come together over something lighter.