2024 could be a transformative year for music and here are what the experts expect from a year dominated by AI, creator tools, and more.

2024 is finally upon us and it looks to be a big year in changes for the music industry. Bright forecasts are on the horizon alongside some warnings here amongst the predictions of top music analysts and experts.

Hypebot collected the predictions of 5 experts from across the industry. Amongst the experts is Mark Mulligon of MIDiA, offering predictions from the MIDiA team which he reveals have had an 88% success rate in 2023 and 2022.

We’ll collect a summary of each analysts predictions below, taking what we think are the most likely and most interesting of the forecasts for your pleasure. We’ll link to Hypebot’s article for each figure so that you can find out more.

Mark Mulligan’s music industry predictions for 2024

Mark Mulligan, managing director and analyst at MIDiA research, tackles all the big topics in his lowdown, including the ever-increasing presence of AI in the industry. However, his spotlight was upon algorithms which he thinks have been distorted from their original purpose.

Mulligan explains how algorithms are now so supported by monetised priorities that they don’t represent the same listener-focus as they once did. Algorithms changed the game for music, allowing listeners to narrow their tastes with constant new discoveries tipped to their tastes. Now, promotional opportunities allow artists and labels to pay for favouritism in recommendations. Mulligan reckons this will see a level of dissatisfaction big enough to drive consumers looking elsewhere.

Mulligan sees AI’s presence growing in 2024, for bad and for good. The good sees new features from platforms, like the expansion of Spotify’s AI DJ and a potential new AI playlist advisor. YouTube have introduced a controversial new tool that uses AI versions of artists voices to allow users to generate tracks to use in Shorts. This raises ethical questions about using an artists voice, with and without their permission.

However, the discussion around AIs threats will continue. On the other side of voice reproduction, senators in the US have put forward a No Fakes Act to allow legal repercussions for the unconsented recreation of artists’ voices. We’ve also seen the UK and European governments discussing legislation to protect artists against AI, amongst other regions.

Mulligan is however mostly optimistic, seeing AI introduced far more into creator products. Tools that enhance the workflow and process for creators, he says, will become “ever more utilised”.

Read Mark Mulligan’s full list of predictions here.

Jay Gilbert’s 2024 music industry predictions

Jay Gilbert, music business consultant and co-founder of Label Logic, looks towards a massive increase in music’s value. He predicts that music copyright value will grow from $41.5 billion to $50 billion globally.

The global music copyright value grew 14% in 2022 to $41.5 billion. Two years of the same growth would see the global music copyright value pass $50 billion with ease in 2024.

However, he points out that the money won’t just come from an increase in engagement. He predicts the price of music streaming subscriptions to increase. Gilbert says that in 2024, the “basic single-user monthly rate will be $12.99”.

Gilbert comments that he sees performers being paid for radio plays in the US. Presumably he’s referencing a recent campaign in the US that should lead to artists getting paid for radio plays. The Music Fairness Action campaign looks to fix a hole in copyright law, enforcing royalties for the broadcast of sound recording on AM and FM radio stations in the US.

Gilbert also sees the rise in the influence of AI. He predicts that a “new Napster” will launch for the distribution of AI-generated fakes of real artists.

Read all of Gilbert’s predictions here.

Bobby Owsinsky sees changes for 2024

Mixing engineer and all-around arbiter for music information, Bobby Owsinsky also predicts a rise in AI tools for the year.

He also sees a change in the way that A&R executives sign acts to labels. Owsinsky predicts intuition playing a larger part in how A&R execs pick their acts, having increasingly relied on algorithms in recent years. Owsinksy says: “This has not proven successful in predicting artists that would have long-term success.”

Owsinsky also sees music production evolving. He says that music production technology currently tries to copy the old, analogue technology. He predicts that they will “develop new tools for a new generation that’s no longer tied to these concepts” including software and devices “at every step of the music production chain, from recording to mixing to mastering to distribution”.

Read Owsinsky’s full predictions here.

Janelle Borg’s 2024 music industry forecast

Lead content writer at Amplify and freelance marketing specialist, sees a bigger focus on superfans this year. She writes that “it has become increasingly important for both emerging and established artists to carve their own niche, and nurture a group of fans who are passionate about the artist and their work”.

She points towards the huge success of Beyoncé and Taylor Swift’s movies in the last year as evidence that cultivating a dedicated fanbase is an important part of modern success.

Borg also sees more artists moving towards subscription models in 2024. She states that they offer a reliable monthly income to artists and creators, especially when creators take the time to regularly connect through content. This is another appeal to the superfans, who offer a steady and large payment that equates to far more per fan than even the heaviest of streamers could provide.

Find more of Borg’s predictions here.

Jesse Kirshbaum

CEO of Nue Agency and marketing expert, Jesse Kirshbaum sees concerts playing a larger role in 2024. He says: “The experience economy has returned and my calendar is back to its 2018 self.” However, he adds that he doesn’t see the bottom line growing after 2023 saw the monumental successes and revenue of Beyoncé and Taylor Swift’s concerts and films.

Kirshbaum reckons that indie musicians will have a stellar year, following an ever-increasing share of the industry. The landscape has been equalised for many years now, with services like RouteNote offering free distribution to the top music streaming services.

Kirshbaum predicts that the rise of AI tools and new equipment will empower independent artists even more.

Like Borg, he also agrees that artists offering their own products will grow further. Rather than Borg’s prediction for subscription offerings from artists, Kirshbaum instead believes the focus will be largely on partnering with brands or creating their own products like merchandise.